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Las Vegas Aces at Atlanta Dream

State Farm Arena · 8/3 - 7:00 PM EDT

The Dream are favored, expected to win by about 2.

Las Vegas Aces

Record: 20-9 · away

82/100
Team Strength Score

43.5%Slight Underdog · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 48.3% (-102)

VS
👀 Betting-value note (separate from our actual pick above): the markets may be underpricing the Dream compared to what our model thinks.
Our predicted final margin
Dream by ~1.6
Vegas line: ATL -1.5
Projected total score: o183.5
Real sportsbook lines, shown for comparison only — not betting advice.
Home team's odds, a few different ways
Us56.5%
ESPN55.3%
Vegas51.7%

Atlanta Dream

Record: 18-10 · home

76/100
Team Strength Score

56.5%Slight Edge · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 51.7% (-118)

How each team's form has trended (last 20 games)

Going up means the team's been playing better than expected lately; going down means worse.

LV
ATL

Players to know

Real season stats for each team's top performers, plus anyone banged up — useful if you've got these guys in a lineup.

LV
  • PointsA'ja Wilson26.8
  • AssistsChelsea Gray7.2
  • ReboundsA'ja Wilson9.8
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus Out
Janiah Barker Out
ATL
  • PointsAllisha Gray19.2
  • AssistsJordin Canada7.7
  • ReboundsAngel Reese11.6
Te-Hina Paopao Out

🎰 Player Props

These are real bets you could place tonight — the number after "o" is the target (e.g. "o0.5" means more than 0.5), and the number in parentheses is the payout odds (negative means the book expects it to happen more often than not). We've ranked players within each stat by comparing their normal season average to tonight's number — the bigger the gap, the more that number looks low for what they usually do. This isn't a prediction for tonight specifically (scoring numbers are scaled for how many points tonight's opponent actually gives up, but nothing else — no adjustment for minutes, rest, or who else is out; rebound and assist numbers aren't scaled at all), just an honest "does this look low" check. Open "Why this number" on any player to see what went into it. Players with no average shown are ones we couldn't confidently match to season stats. Different lines can come from different sportsbooks, so each card names its source.

🎯 Where tonight's numbers look lowest for what these players usually do
1 NaLyssa Smith Points Target: o10.5 (-103) · usually gets 11.49 · +0.99 above tonight's number · cleared it in 5 of the last 10
2 Jackie Young Rebounds Target: o3.5 (-139) · usually gets 4.4 · +0.9 above tonight's number · cleared it in 4 of the last 10
3 Chelsea Gray Rebounds Target: o2.5 (-120) · usually gets 3.3 · +0.8 above tonight's number · cleared it in 4 of the last 10
Biggest gap between season average and tonight's number — a real signal worth a look, not a guarantee. Small sample, no adjustment for matchup or weather.

Assists

via DraftKings
  1. Chelsea Gray o6.5 (+104) avg 7.2 (+0.7)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 83.4 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 4 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes33.1
    Points12.6
    Rebounds3.3
    Assists7.2
    Field goal44.9%
    Three-point40.0%
    Free throw93.0%
    Turnovers3.0
  2. Jordin Canada o7.5 (-151) avg 7.7 (+0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.1 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 5 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 28 games, 28 starts
    Minutes31.5
    Points11.3
    Rebounds3.7
    Assists7.7
    Field goal44.0%
    Three-point27.4%
    Free throw80.4%
    Turnovers2.5
  3. Jackie Young o6.5 (-110) avg 6.7 (+0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 83.4 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 4 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes32.3
    Points17.5
    Rebounds4.4
    Assists6.7
    Field goal48.4%
    Three-point37.2%
    Free throw95.1%
    Turnovers2.3
  4. Rhyne Howard o3.5 (-123) avg 3.5 (0.0)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.1 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 5 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 27 games, 27 starts
    Minutes34.7
    Points16.9
    Rebounds3.9
    Assists3.5
    Field goal39.9%
    Three-point35.2%
    Free throw86.0%
    Turnovers1.4
  5. Angel Reese o2.5 (+111) avg 2.4 (-0.1)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.1 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 5 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 27 games, 27 starts
    Minutes30.7
    Points15.8
    Rebounds11.6
    Assists2.4
    Field goal42.9%
    Three-point15.6%
    Free throw73.7%
    Turnovers3.4
  6. Allisha Gray o2.5 (-104) avg 2.3 (-0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.1 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 5 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 28 games, 28 starts
    Minutes33.0
    Points19.2
    Rebounds3.1
    Assists2.3
    Field goal45.8%
    Three-point31.5%
    Free throw76.7%
    Turnovers1.6
  7. A'ja Wilson o3.5 (-116) avg 3.2 (-0.3)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 83.4 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 4 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 27 games, 27 starts
    Minutes31.8
    Points26.8
    Rebounds9.8
    Assists3.2
    Field goal53.2%
    Three-point43.8%
    Free throw84.5%
    Turnovers2.4

Points

via DraftKings
  1. NaLyssa Smith o10.5 (-103) avg 11.49 (+0.99)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 11.9 season average
    Opponent defense -3.4%
    Adjusted for tonight11.49
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 83.4 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 4 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Last 10 games — cleared 10.5 in 5 of them
    9 @NY
    29 CHI
    9 IND
    16 @POR
    14 PHX
    9 IND
    18 @TOR
    4 @WSH
    7 NY
    17 @CHI
    Average over those 1013.2
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 28 games, 28 starts
    Minutes23.8
    Points11.9
    Rebounds5.9
    Assists0.8
    Field goal66.5%
    Three-point14.3%
    Free throw56.5%
    Turnovers0.9
  2. Chelsea Gray o11.5 (-108) avg 12.17 (+0.67)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 12.6 season average
    Opponent defense -3.4%
    Adjusted for tonight12.17
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 83.4 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 4 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes33.1
    Points12.6
    Rebounds3.3
    Assists7.2
    Field goal44.9%
    Three-point40.0%
    Free throw93.0%
    Turnovers3.0
  3. Jordin Canada o10.5 (-109) avg 11.14 (+0.64)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 11.3 season average
    Opponent defense -1.5%
    Adjusted for tonight11.14
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.1 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 5 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 28 games, 28 starts
    Minutes31.5
    Points11.3
    Rebounds3.7
    Assists7.7
    Field goal44.0%
    Three-point27.4%
    Free throw80.4%
    Turnovers2.5
  4. Allisha Gray o18.5 (-119) avg 18.92 (+0.42)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 19.2 season average
    Opponent defense -1.5%
    Adjusted for tonight18.92
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.1 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 5 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 28 games, 28 starts
    Minutes33.0
    Points19.2
    Rebounds3.1
    Assists2.3
    Field goal45.8%
    Three-point31.5%
    Free throw76.7%
    Turnovers1.6
  5. Rhyne Howard o16.5 (-122) avg 16.65 (+0.15)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 16.9 season average
    Opponent defense -1.5%
    Adjusted for tonight16.65
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.1 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 5 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 27 games, 27 starts
    Minutes34.7
    Points16.9
    Rebounds3.9
    Assists3.5
    Field goal39.9%
    Three-point35.2%
    Free throw86.0%
    Turnovers1.4
  6. Angel Reese o15.5 (-110) avg 15.57 (+0.07)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 15.8 season average
    Opponent defense -1.5%
    Adjusted for tonight15.57
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.1 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 5 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 27 games, 27 starts
    Minutes30.7
    Points15.8
    Rebounds11.6
    Assists2.4
    Field goal42.9%
    Three-point15.6%
    Free throw73.7%
    Turnovers3.4
  7. A'ja Wilson o26.5 (-123) avg 25.88 (-0.62)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 26.8 season average
    Opponent defense -3.4%
    Adjusted for tonight25.88
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 83.4 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 4 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 27 games, 27 starts
    Minutes31.8
    Points26.8
    Rebounds9.8
    Assists3.2
    Field goal53.2%
    Three-point43.8%
    Free throw84.5%
    Turnovers2.4
  8. Jackie Young o19.5 (-117) avg 16.9 (-2.6)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 17.5 season average
    Opponent defense -3.4%
    Adjusted for tonight16.9
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 83.4 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 4 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes32.3
    Points17.5
    Rebounds4.4
    Assists6.7
    Field goal48.4%
    Three-point37.2%
    Free throw95.1%
    Turnovers2.3

Rebounds

via DraftKings
  1. Jackie Young o3.5 (-139) avg 4.4 (+0.9)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 83.4 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 4 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Last 10 games — cleared 3.5 in 4 of them
    2 IND
    4 @POR
    2 PHX
    1 IND
    4 @TOR
    7 @WSH
    0 SPO
    2 POR
    2 NY
    11 @CHI
    Average over those 103.5
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes32.3
    Points17.5
    Rebounds4.4
    Assists6.7
    Field goal48.4%
    Three-point37.2%
    Free throw95.1%
    Turnovers2.3
  2. Chelsea Gray o2.5 (-120) avg 3.3 (+0.8)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 83.4 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 4 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Last 10 games — cleared 2.5 in 4 of them
    4 CHI
    4 IND
    1 @POR
    1 PHX
    2 IND
    4 @TOR
    1 @WSH
    1 POR
    3 NY
    1 @CHI
    Average over those 102.2
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes33.1
    Points12.6
    Rebounds3.3
    Assists7.2
    Field goal44.9%
    Three-point40.0%
    Free throw93.0%
    Turnovers3.0
  3. Rhyne Howard o3.5 (-127) avg 3.9 (+0.4)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.1 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 5 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 27 games, 27 starts
    Minutes34.7
    Points16.9
    Rebounds3.9
    Assists3.5
    Field goal39.9%
    Three-point35.2%
    Free throw86.0%
    Turnovers1.4
  4. NaLyssa Smith o5.5 (+109) avg 5.9 (+0.4)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 83.4 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 4 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 28 games, 28 starts
    Minutes23.8
    Points11.9
    Rebounds5.9
    Assists0.8
    Field goal66.5%
    Three-point14.3%
    Free throw56.5%
    Turnovers0.9
  5. A'ja Wilson o9.5 (-116) avg 9.8 (+0.3)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 83.4 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 4 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 27 games, 27 starts
    Minutes31.8
    Points26.8
    Rebounds9.8
    Assists3.2
    Field goal53.2%
    Three-point43.8%
    Free throw84.5%
    Turnovers2.4
  6. Jordin Canada o3.5 (-118) avg 3.7 (+0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.1 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 5 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 28 games, 28 starts
    Minutes31.5
    Points11.3
    Rebounds3.7
    Assists7.7
    Field goal44.0%
    Three-point27.4%
    Free throw80.4%
    Turnovers2.5
  7. Angel Reese o11.5 (-113) avg 11.6 (+0.1)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.1 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 5 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 27 games, 27 starts
    Minutes30.7
    Points15.8
    Rebounds11.6
    Assists2.4
    Field goal42.9%
    Three-point15.6%
    Free throw73.7%
    Turnovers3.4
  8. Allisha Gray o3.5 (+101) avg 3.1 (-0.4)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.1 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 5 of 15 (stingiest, 34 games)
    Their season — 28 games, 28 starts
    Minutes33.0
    Points19.2
    Rebounds3.1
    Assists2.3
    Field goal45.8%
    Three-point31.5%
    Free throw76.7%
    Turnovers1.6