ChaBoi Sportswho's actually going to win?

Dallas Wings at Golden State Valkyries

Chase Center · 10/2 - 9:00 PM EDT

The Valkyries are favored, expected to win by about 5.

Dallas Wings

Record: 27-17 · away

66/100
Team Strength Score

30.3%Underdog · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 25.2% (+280)

VS
Betting-value note (separate from our actual pick above): the markets may be underpricing the Wings compared to what our model thinks.
Our predicted final margin
Valkyries by ~5.2
Vegas line: GS -8.5
We project a total of ~174.6
Vegas total: 158.5 · we lean OVER
Sportsbook lines, for comparison only — not betting advice.
Home team's odds, a few different ways
Us69.7%
ESPN72.3%
Vegas74.8%

Golden State Valkyries

Record: 32-12 · home

92/100
Team Strength Score

69.7%Favored · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 74.8% (-355)

How each team's form has trended (last 20 games)

Going up means the team's been playing better than expected lately; going down means worse.

DAL
DAL: 1576.8
GS
GS: 1661.2

Players to know

Season stats for each team's top performers, plus anyone banged up — useful if you've got these guys in a lineup.

DAL
  • PointsPaige Bueckers20.9
  • AssistsPaige Bueckers5.9
  • ReboundsJessica Shepard11.1
Awak Kuier Day-To-Day
Alanna Smith Out
Azzi Fudd Out
Costanza Verona Out
GS
  • PointsGabby Williams14.4
  • AssistsVeronica Burton5.7
  • ReboundsKiah Stokes5.8
Iliana Rupert Out

Player Props

Real sportsbook lines, ranked by how low tonight's number looks against each player's normal season average.

How to read this

The number after "o" is the target (e.g. "o0.5" means more than 0.5). When shown, the number in parentheses is the payout odds (negative means the book expects it to happen more often than not), and "opened" is where the line started before it moved. Players are ranked within each stat by comparing their normal season average to tonight's number — the bigger the gap, the more that number looks low for what they usually do. Not a prediction for tonight specifically (scoring numbers are scaled for how many points tonight's opponent gives up, but nothing else — no adjustment for minutes, rest, or who else is out; rebound and assist numbers aren't scaled at all), just a "does this look low" check. Open "Why this number" on any player for detail. Players with no average shown couldn't be confidently matched to season stats. Different lines can come from different sportsbooks, so each card names its source.

Where tonight's numbers look lowest for what these players usually do
1 Jessica Shepard Points Pick: OVER 9.5 · usually gets 13.05 · +3.55 above tonight's number · cleared it in 8 of the last 10
2 Janelle Salaun Points Pick: OVER 10.5 · usually gets 12.6 · +2.1 above tonight's number · cleared it in 5 of the last 10
3 Jessica Shepard Rebounds Pick: OVER 9.5 · usually gets 11.1 · +1.6 above tonight's number · cleared it in 5 of the last 10
Biggest gap between season average and tonight's number — worth a look, not a guarantee. Small sample, no adjustment for matchup or weather.

Points

via DraftKings
  1. Jessica Shepard o9.5 avg 13.05 (+3.55)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 14.5 season average
    Opponent defense -10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight13.05
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 74.4 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 1 of 15 (stingiest, 51 games)
    Last 10 games — cleared 9.5 in 8 of them
    0 @MIN
    4 @GS
    26 IND
    11 SEA
    21 POR
    17 CON
    13 LA
    10 PHX
    17 @PHX
    20 @SEA
    Average over those 1013.9
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 42 games, 42 starts
    Minutes31.7
    Points14.5
    Rebounds11.1
    Assists5.3
    Field goal57.5%
    Three-point9.1%
    Free throw67.7%
    Turnovers1.9
  2. Janelle Salaun o10.5 avg 12.6 (+2.1)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 12.7 season average
    Opponent defense -0.8%
    Adjusted for tonight12.6
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Last 10 games — cleared 10.5 in 5 of them
    9 @DAL
    8 @LA
    10 DAL
    15 MIN
    13 @CHI
    12 @MIN
    15 @CON
    7 @NY
    11 @POR
    6 @LA
    Average over those 1010.6
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 40 games, 0 starts
    Minutes22.1
    Points12.7
    Rebounds4.0
    Assists1.2
    Field goal42.5%
    Three-point39.2%
    Free throw79.6%
    Turnovers0.8
  3. Kiah Stokes o2.5 opened 3.5 avg 3.57 (+1.07)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 3.6 season average
    Opponent defense -0.8%
    Adjusted for tonight3.57
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 43 games, 43 starts
    Minutes22.3
    Points3.6
    Rebounds5.8
    Assists1.3
    Field goal43.4%
    Three-point29.0%
    Free throw42.1%
    Turnovers0.5
  4. Cecilia Zandalasini o7.5 opened 8.5 avg 8.53 (+1.03)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 8.6 season average
    Opponent defense -0.8%
    Adjusted for tonight8.53
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 37 games, 34 starts
    Minutes19.0
    Points8.6
    Rebounds2.1
    Assists1.7
    Field goal39.3%
    Three-point32.4%
    Free throw82.6%
    Turnovers1.4
  5. Paige Bueckers o18.5 avg 18.81 (+0.31)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 20.9 season average
    Opponent defense -10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight18.81
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 74.4 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 1 of 15 (stingiest, 51 games)
    Their season — 42 games, 42 starts
    Minutes32.8
    Points20.9
    Rebounds4.1
    Assists5.9
    Field goal51.2%
    Three-point41.0%
    Free throw87.1%
    Turnovers2.2
  6. Kayla Thornton o7.5 avg 7.64 (+0.14)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 7.7 season average
    Opponent defense -0.8%
    Adjusted for tonight7.64
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 44 games, 44 starts
    Minutes24.3
    Points7.7
    Rebounds4.5
    Assists0.7
    Field goal36.1%
    Three-point34.7%
    Free throw90.3%
    Turnovers0.7
  7. Aziaha James o5.5 opened 6.5 avg 5.49 (-0.01)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 6.1 season average
    Opponent defense -10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight5.49
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 74.4 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 1 of 15 (stingiest, 51 games)
    Their season — 39 games, 2 starts
    Minutes11.8
    Points6.1
    Rebounds2.4
    Assists1.3
    Field goal38.8%
    Three-point24.6%
    Free throw73.9%
    Turnovers0.8
  8. Veronica Burton o12.5 avg 12.1 (-0.4)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 12.2 season average
    Opponent defense -0.8%
    Adjusted for tonight12.1
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 44 games, 44 starts
    Minutes28.6
    Points12.2
    Rebounds3.6
    Assists5.7
    Field goal42.2%
    Three-point35.5%
    Free throw83.6%
    Turnovers1.5

Assists

via DraftKings
  1. Paige Bueckers o4.5 opened 5.5 avg 5.9 (+1.4)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 74.4 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 1 of 15 (stingiest, 51 games)
    Their season — 42 games, 42 starts
    Minutes32.8
    Points20.9
    Rebounds4.1
    Assists5.9
    Field goal51.2%
    Three-point41.0%
    Free throw87.1%
    Turnovers2.2
  2. Jessica Shepard o4.5 avg 5.3 (+0.8)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 74.4 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 1 of 15 (stingiest, 51 games)
    Their season — 42 games, 42 starts
    Minutes31.7
    Points14.5
    Rebounds11.1
    Assists5.3
    Field goal57.5%
    Three-point9.1%
    Free throw67.7%
    Turnovers1.9
  3. Veronica Burton o5.5 opened 6.5 avg 5.7 (+0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 44 games, 44 starts
    Minutes28.6
    Points12.2
    Rebounds3.6
    Assists5.7
    Field goal42.2%
    Three-point35.5%
    Free throw83.6%
    Turnovers1.5
  4. Cecilia Zandalasini o1.5 avg 1.7 (+0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 37 games, 34 starts
    Minutes19.0
    Points8.6
    Rebounds2.1
    Assists1.7
    Field goal39.3%
    Three-point32.4%
    Free throw82.6%
    Turnovers1.4
  5. Arike Ogunbowale o3.5 opened 2.5 avg 3.3 (-0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 74.4 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 1 of 15 (stingiest, 51 games)
    Their season — 44 games, 44 starts
    Minutes30.0
    Points15.3
    Rebounds3.0
    Assists3.3
    Field goal40.6%
    Three-point32.5%
    Free throw89.1%
    Turnovers1.5
  6. Kiah Stokes o1.5 avg 1.3 (-0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 43 games, 43 starts
    Minutes22.3
    Points3.6
    Rebounds5.8
    Assists1.3
    Field goal43.4%
    Three-point29.0%
    Free throw42.1%
    Turnovers0.5
  7. Janelle Salaun o1.5 avg 1.2 (-0.3)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 40 games, 0 starts
    Minutes22.1
    Points12.7
    Rebounds4.0
    Assists1.2
    Field goal42.5%
    Three-point39.2%
    Free throw79.6%
    Turnovers0.8
  8. Gabby Williams o3.5 opened 2.5 avg 2.2 (-1.3)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 39 games, 39 starts
    Minutes25.1
    Points14.4
    Rebounds3.3
    Assists2.2
    Field goal40.4%
    Three-point34.2%
    Free throw73.6%
    Turnovers1.5

Rebounds

via DraftKings
  1. Jessica Shepard o9.5 avg 11.1 (+1.6)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 74.4 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 1 of 15 (stingiest, 51 games)
    Last 10 games — cleared 9.5 in 5 of them
    0 @MIN
    7 @GS
    8 IND
    11 SEA
    9 POR
    10 CON
    11 LA
    6 PHX
    19 @PHX
    11 @SEA
    Average over those 109.2
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 42 games, 42 starts
    Minutes31.7
    Points14.5
    Rebounds11.1
    Assists5.3
    Field goal57.5%
    Three-point9.1%
    Free throw67.7%
    Turnovers1.9
  2. Paige Bueckers o3.5 opened 4.5 avg 4.1 (+0.6)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 74.4 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 1 of 15 (stingiest, 51 games)
    Their season — 42 games, 42 starts
    Minutes32.8
    Points20.9
    Rebounds4.1
    Assists5.9
    Field goal51.2%
    Three-point41.0%
    Free throw87.1%
    Turnovers2.2
  3. Cecilia Zandalasini o1.5 opened 2.5 avg 2.1 (+0.6)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 37 games, 34 starts
    Minutes19.0
    Points8.6
    Rebounds2.1
    Assists1.7
    Field goal39.3%
    Three-point32.4%
    Free throw82.6%
    Turnovers1.4
  4. Janelle Salaun o3.5 avg 4.0 (+0.5)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 40 games, 0 starts
    Minutes22.1
    Points12.7
    Rebounds4.0
    Assists1.2
    Field goal42.5%
    Three-point39.2%
    Free throw79.6%
    Turnovers0.8
  5. Kiah Stokes o5.5 avg 5.8 (+0.3)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 43 games, 43 starts
    Minutes22.3
    Points3.6
    Rebounds5.8
    Assists1.3
    Field goal43.4%
    Three-point29.0%
    Free throw42.1%
    Turnovers0.5
  6. Veronica Burton o3.5 avg 3.6 (+0.1)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 44 games, 44 starts
    Minutes28.6
    Points12.2
    Rebounds3.6
    Assists5.7
    Field goal42.2%
    Three-point35.5%
    Free throw83.6%
    Turnovers1.5
  7. Gabby Williams o3.5 opened 4.5 avg 3.3 (-0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 39 games, 39 starts
    Minutes25.1
    Points14.4
    Rebounds3.3
    Assists2.2
    Field goal40.4%
    Three-point34.2%
    Free throw73.6%
    Turnovers1.5
  8. Arike Ogunbowale o3.5 avg 3.0 (-0.5)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 74.4 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 1 of 15 (stingiest, 51 games)
    Their season — 44 games, 44 starts
    Minutes30.0
    Points15.3
    Rebounds3.0
    Assists3.3
    Field goal40.6%
    Three-point32.5%
    Free throw89.1%
    Turnovers1.5

Threes

via DraftKings
  1. Janelle Salaun o1.5 avg 2.3 (+0.8)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 40 games, 0 starts
    Minutes22.1
    Points12.7
    Rebounds4.0
    Assists1.2
    Field goal42.5%
    Three-point39.2%
    Free throw79.6%
    Turnovers0.8
  2. Paige Bueckers o1.5 avg 1.9 (+0.4)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 74.4 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 1 of 15 (stingiest, 51 games)
    Their season — 42 games, 42 starts
    Minutes32.8
    Points20.9
    Rebounds4.1
    Assists5.9
    Field goal51.2%
    Three-point41.0%
    Free throw87.1%
    Turnovers2.2
  3. Awak Kuier o0.5 opened 1.5 avg 0.8 (+0.3)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 74.4 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 1 of 15 (stingiest, 51 games)
    Their season — 41 games, 26 starts
    Minutes18.6
    Points6.3
    Rebounds3.9
    Assists1.0
    Field goal50.8%
    Three-point39.0%
    Free throw71.4%
    Turnovers1.0
  4. Arike Ogunbowale o1.5 opened 2.5 avg 1.7 (+0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 74.4 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 1 of 15 (stingiest, 51 games)
    Their season — 44 games, 44 starts
    Minutes30.0
    Points15.3
    Rebounds3.0
    Assists3.3
    Field goal40.6%
    Three-point32.5%
    Free throw89.1%
    Turnovers1.5
  5. Kayla Thornton o1.5 avg 1.5 (0.0)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 44 games, 44 starts
    Minutes24.3
    Points7.7
    Rebounds4.5
    Assists0.7
    Field goal36.1%
    Three-point34.7%
    Free throw90.3%
    Turnovers0.7
  6. Veronica Burton o1.5 avg 1.4 (-0.1)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 44 games, 44 starts
    Minutes28.6
    Points12.2
    Rebounds3.6
    Assists5.7
    Field goal42.2%
    Three-point35.5%
    Free throw83.6%
    Turnovers1.5
  7. Cecilia Zandalasini o1.5 avg 1.3 (-0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 37 games, 34 starts
    Minutes19.0
    Points8.6
    Rebounds2.1
    Assists1.7
    Field goal39.3%
    Three-point32.4%
    Free throw82.6%
    Turnovers1.4
  8. Gabby Williams o2.5 opened 1.5 avg 1.7 (-0.8)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.7 pts/game vs 86.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 49 games)
    Their season — 39 games, 39 starts
    Minutes25.1
    Points14.4
    Rebounds3.3
    Assists2.2
    Field goal40.4%
    Three-point34.2%
    Free throw73.6%
    Turnovers1.5
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