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St. Louis Cardinals at New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium · 8/3 - 7:05 PM EDT

The Yankees are favored, expected to win by about 1.
⚾ Nudged by today's starting pitchers, on top of team strength.
🚑 Nudged for a key player being out tonight, on top of team strength.
🌡️ 81°F 💨 7 mph gusts 🌧️ 40% precip at Yankee Stadium
🎯 Yankees' starter has the clear ERA edge today; real chance of rain affecting the game.

St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 55-57 · away

⚾ Probable pitcher: Michael McGreevy (3.57 ERA, 4-9)

45/100
Team Strength Score

44.5%Slight Underdog · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 37.0% (158)

VS
👀 Betting-value note (separate from our actual pick above): the markets may be underpricing the Cardinals compared to what our model thinks.
Our predicted final margin
Yankees by ~0.9
Real sportsbook lines, shown for comparison only — not betting advice.
Home team's odds, a few different ways
Us55.5%
ESPN75.5%
Vegas63.0%

New York Yankees

Record: 63-49 · home

⚾ Probable pitcher: Cam Schlittler (2.04 ERA, 10-6)

48/100
Team Strength Score

55.5%Slight Edge · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 63.0% (-193)

How each team's form has trended (last 5 games)

Going up means the team's been playing better than expected lately; going down means worse.

STL
NYY

Players to know

Real season stats for each team's top performers, plus anyone banged up — useful if you've got these guys in a lineup.

STL
  • Batting AverageAlec Burleson.284
  • Home RunsJordan Walker22
  • Runs Batted InJordan Walker81
  • Earned Run AverageMichael McGreevy3.57
  • WinsAndre Pallante11
  • StrikeoutsMatthew Liberatore107
Ramon Urias 60-Day-IL
JoJo Romero 15-Day-IL
Max Rajcic 60-Day-IL
NYY
  • Batting AverageBen Rice.266
  • Home RunsBen Rice31
  • Runs Batted InBen Rice73
  • Earned Run AverageCam Schlittler2.04
  • WinsCam Schlittler10
  • StrikeoutsCam Schlittler165
Carlos Rodon 15-Day-IL
Clarke Schmidt 60-Day-IL
Giancarlo Stanton 10-Day-IL
Aaron Judge 60-Day-IL
Cody Bellinger 10-Day-IL

🎰 Player Props

These are real bets you could place tonight — the number after "o" is the target (e.g. "o0.5" means more than 0.5), and the number in parentheses is the payout odds (negative means the book expects it to happen more often than not). We've ranked players within each stat by comparing their normal season average to tonight's number — the bigger the gap, the more that number looks low for what they usually do. This isn't a prediction for tonight specifically (no adjustment for who's pitching, weather, or a hot streak, though home run and total bases numbers are scaled for tonight's actual ballpark), just an honest "does this look low" check. Open "Why this number" on any player to see what went into it. Players with no average shown are ones we couldn't confidently match to season stats. Different lines can come from different sportsbooks, so each card names its source.

🎯 Where tonight's numbers look lowest for what these players usually do
1 Ben Rice Total Bases Target: o1.5 (+109) · usually gets 3.14 · +1.64 above tonight's number · cleared it in 3 of the last 10
2 Paul Goldschmidt Total Bases Target: o1.5 (+150) · usually gets 2.39 · +0.89 above tonight's number · cleared it in 3 of the last 10
3 Cam Schlittler Strikeouts Target: o6.5 (-155) · usually gets 7.17 · +0.67 above tonight's number · cleared it in 7 of the last 10
Biggest gap between season average and tonight's number — a real signal worth a look, not a guarantee. Small sample, no adjustment for matchup or weather.

Hits

via DraftKings
  1. Jordan Walker o0.5 (-190) avg 1.1 (+0.6)
  2. Alec Burleson o0.5 (-189) avg 1.09 (+0.59)
  3. Ben Rice o0.5 (-234) avg 0.99 (+0.49)
  4. JJ Wetherholt o0.5 (-177) avg 0.97 (+0.47)
  5. Ivan Herrera o0.5 (-172) avg 0.9 (+0.4)
  6. Paul Goldschmidt o0.5 (-214) avg 0.87 (+0.37)
  7. Jasson Domínguez o0.5 (-204) avg 0.87 (+0.37)
  8. Masyn Winn o0.5 (-175) avg 0.87 (+0.37)

Total Bases

via DraftKings
  1. Ben Rice o1.5 (+109) avg 3.14 (+1.64)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 2.09 season average
    Ballpark +12.0%
    Temperature +11.0%
    Opposing starter +6.6%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight3.14
    Held back to +50%: those factors multiplied out to +82.2%, but they overlap (a hot day and a homer-prone park describe some of the same thing), so stacking them in full would overstate it.
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 286 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 92.1 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 110.9 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 48.3% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 15.7% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 40.2% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 390.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
    Last 10 games — cleared 1.5 in 3 of them
    0 PIT
    0 @PHI
    0 @PHI
    6 @PHI
    2 @CHW
    0 @CHW
    2 @CHW
    0 @CHW
    1 @CHC
    0 @CHC
    Average over those 101.1
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  2. Paul Goldschmidt o1.5 (+150) avg 2.39 (+0.89)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.59 season average
    Ballpark +12.0%
    Temperature +11.0%
    Opposing starter +6.6%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +3.1%
    Adjusted for tonight2.39
    Held back to +50%: those factors multiplied out to +70.9%, but they overlap (a hot day and a homer-prone park describe some of the same thing), so stacking them in full would overstate it.
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 216 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 86.3 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 109.8 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 35.6% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 10.6% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 34.7% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 390.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
    Last 10 games — cleared 1.5 in 3 of them
    0 PIT
    4 @PHI
    2 @PHI
    1 @PHI
    1 @CHW
    0 @CHW
    2 @CHW
    0 @CHW
    0 @CHC
    0 @CHC
    Average over those 101.0
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  3. Trent Grisham o1.5 (+110) avg 1.91 (+0.41)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.27 season average
    Ballpark +12.0%
    Temperature +11.0%
    Opposing starter +6.6%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight1.91
    Held back to +50%: those factors multiplied out to +82.2%, but they overlap (a hot day and a homer-prone park describe some of the same thing), so stacking them in full would overstate it.
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 254 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 90.8 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 111.6 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 44.5% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 9.8% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 32.3% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 390.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  4. Jasson Domínguez o1.5 (+142) avg 1.43 (-0.07)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.44 season average
    Ballpark +12.0%
    Temperature +11.0%
    Opposing starter +6.6%
    Barrel rate -25.0%
    Expected offense -0.6%
    Adjusted for tonight1.43
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 149 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 88.0 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 110.8 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 38.9% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 5.4% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 30.9% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 379.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg

Strikeouts

via DraftKings
  1. Cam Schlittler o6.5 (-155) avg 7.17 (+0.67)
    Why this number
    Last 10 games — cleared 6.5 in 7 of them
    5 BOS
    7 @TOR
    13 CIN
    9 @BOS
    5 DET
    8 @TB
    6 @WSH
    8 LAD
    12 @PHI
    8 @CHW
    Average over those 108.1
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  2. Michael McGreevy o4.5 (+128) avg 3.62 (-0.88)