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Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros

Daikin Park · 8/3 - 8:10 PM EDT

Toss-up: about a coin flip between the Blue Jays and the Astros.
⚾ Nudged by today's starting pitchers, on top of team strength.
🌡️ 93°F 💨 22 mph gusts 🌧️ 5% precip at Daikin Park
🎯 Blue Jays' starter has the clear ERA edge today; windy enough to matter for fly balls.

Toronto Blue Jays

Record: 52-60 · away

⚾ Probable pitcher: Shane Bieber (5.74 ERA, 2-2)

68/100
Team Strength Score

49.4%Toss-up · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 45.4% (115)

VS
👀 Betting-value note (separate from our actual pick above): the markets may be underpricing the Blue Jays compared to what our model thinks.
Our predicted final margin
Astros by ~0.1
Real sportsbook lines, shown for comparison only — not betting advice.
Home team's odds, a few different ways
Us50.6%
ESPN61.9%
Vegas54.6%

Houston Astros

Record: 58-55 · home

⚾ Probable pitcher: Cristian Javier (7.17 ERA, 1-1)

95/100
Team Strength Score

50.6%Toss-up · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 54.6% (-127)

How each team's form has trended (last 4 games)

Going up means the team's been playing better than expected lately; going down means worse.

TOR
HOU

Players to know

Real season stats for each team's top performers, plus anyone banged up — useful if you've got these guys in a lineup.

TOR
  • Batting AverageErnie Clement.289
  • Home RunsKazuma Okamoto24
  • Runs Batted InKazuma Okamoto69
  • Earned Run AverageDylan Cease2.41
  • WinsDylan Cease7
  • StrikeoutsDylan Cease174
Jonatan Clase 10-Day-IL
Lenyn Sosa 60-Day-IL
Joe Mantiply 60-Day-IL
Yimi Garcia 60-Day-IL
Patrick Corbin 15-Day-IL
HOU
  • Batting AverageYordan Alvarez.330
  • Home RunsYordan Alvarez35
  • Runs Batted InYordan Alvarez84
  • WinsPeter Lambert8
  • StrikeoutsPeter Lambert108
Brice Matthews 10-Day-IL
Spencer Arrighetti 15-Day-IL
Mike Burrows 15-Day-IL
Carlos Correa 60-Day-IL
Brandon Walter 60-Day-IL

🎰 Player Props

These are real bets you could place tonight — the number after "o" is the target (e.g. "o0.5" means more than 0.5), and the number in parentheses is the payout odds (negative means the book expects it to happen more often than not). We've ranked players within each stat by comparing their normal season average to tonight's number — the bigger the gap, the more that number looks low for what they usually do. This isn't a prediction for tonight specifically (no adjustment for who's pitching, weather, or a hot streak, though home run and total bases numbers are scaled for tonight's actual ballpark), just an honest "does this look low" check. Open "Why this number" on any player to see what went into it. Players with no average shown are ones we couldn't confidently match to season stats. Different lines can come from different sportsbooks, so each card names its source.

🎯 Where tonight's numbers look lowest for what these players usually do
1 Yordan Alvarez Total Bases Target: o1.5 (-118) · usually gets 3.54 · +2.04 above tonight's number · cleared it in 5 of the last 10
2 Jeremy Pena Total Bases Target: o1.5 (+117) · usually gets 2.66 · +1.16 above tonight's number · cleared it in 9 of the last 10
3 Christian Walker Total Bases Target: o1.5 (+134) · usually gets 2.56 · +1.06 above tonight's number · cleared it in 4 of the last 10
Biggest gap between season average and tonight's number — a real signal worth a look, not a guarantee. Small sample, no adjustment for matchup or weather.

Hits

via DraftKings
  1. Jeremy Pena o0.5 (-272) avg 1.26 (+0.76)
  2. Ernie Clement o0.5 (-227) avg 1.12 (+0.62)
  3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 (-239) avg 0.98 (+0.48)
  4. Yainer Diaz o0.5 (-249) avg 0.96 (+0.46)
  5. Isaac Paredes o0.5 (-216) avg 0.93 (+0.43)
  6. George Springer o0.5 (-186) avg 0.93 (+0.43)
  7. Jose Altuve o0.5 (-185) avg 0.91 (+0.41)
  8. Christian Walker o0.5 (-204) avg 0.88 (+0.38)

Total Bases

via DraftKings
  1. Yordan Alvarez o1.5 (-118) avg 3.54 (+2.04)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 2.36 season average
    Ballpark +8.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter +25.0%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight3.54
    Held back to +50%: those factors multiplied out to +113.5%, but they overlap (a hot day and a homer-prone park describe some of the same thing), so stacking them in full would overstate it.
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 318 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 94.7 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 118.5 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 53.8% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 18.6% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 42.1% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 405.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
    Last 10 games — cleared 1.5 in 5 of them
    2 MIA
    5 MIA
    1 @CHW
    0 @CHW
    0 @CHW
    1 @LAA
    5 @LAA
    0 @LAA
    2 TEX
    2 TEX
    Average over those 101.8
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  2. Jeremy Pena o1.5 (+117) avg 2.66 (+1.16)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 2.08 season average
    Ballpark +8.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter +25.0%
    Barrel rate -25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight2.66
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 202 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 88.5 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 110.0 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 41.6% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 5.4% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 33.2% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 387.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
    Last 10 games — cleared 1.5 in 9 of them
    4 MIA
    6 MIA
    3 @CHW
    3 @CHW
    8 @CHW
    2 @LAA
    1 @LAA
    4 @LAA
    4 TEX
    5 TEX
    Average over those 104.0
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  3. Christian Walker o1.5 (+134) avg 2.56 (+1.06)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.71 season average
    Ballpark +8.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter +25.0%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +2.1%
    Adjusted for tonight2.56
    Held back to +50%: those factors multiplied out to +98.2%, but they overlap (a hot day and a homer-prone park describe some of the same thing), so stacking them in full would overstate it.
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 294 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 89.3 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 112.5 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 41.8% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 9.9% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 31.3% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 391.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
    Last 10 games — cleared 1.5 in 4 of them
    0 MIA
    1 MIA
    1 MIA
    2 @CHW
    0 @CHW
    1 @LAA
    5 @LAA
    1 @LAA
    4 TEX
    3 TEX
    Average over those 101.8
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  4. Kazuma Okamoto o1.5 (+123) avg 2.45 (+0.95)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.63 season average
    Ballpark +8.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter -1.0%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +5.5%
    Adjusted for tonight2.45
    Held back to +50%: those factors multiplied out to +62.2%, but they overlap (a hot day and a homer-prone park describe some of the same thing), so stacking them in full would overstate it.
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 261 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 90.6 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 112.6 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 44.8% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 13.4% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 30.7% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 397.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  5. Isaac Paredes o1.5 (+131) avg 2.14 (+0.64)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.55 season average
    Ballpark +8.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter +25.0%
    Barrel rate -18.8%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight2.14
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 323 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 86.4 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 106.8 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 29.7% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 5.9% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 38.7% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 377.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  6. Yainer Diaz o1.5 (+132) avg 2.04 (+0.54)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.57 season average
    Ballpark +8.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter +25.0%
    Barrel rate -20.2%
    Expected offense +4.8%
    Adjusted for tonight2.04
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 172 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 87.7 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 110.3 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 34.3% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 5.8% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 30.2% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 398.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o1.5 (+126) avg 1.67 (+0.17)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.32 season average
    Ballpark +8.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter -1.0%
    Barrel rate -6.5%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight1.67
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 338 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 90.3 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 116.0 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 44.1% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 6.8% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 29.9% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 408.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  8. Daulton Varsho o1.5 (+138) avg 1.38 (-0.12)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.26 season average
    Ballpark +8.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter -1.0%
    Barrel rate -10.6%
    Expected offense -0.6%
    Adjusted for tonight1.38
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 262 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 86.1 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 110.4 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 36.3% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 6.5% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 34.0% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 386.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg

Strikeouts

via DraftKings
  1. Shane Bieber o3.5 (-163) avg 3.14 (-0.36)
  2. Cristian Javier o3.5 (-168)