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Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies

Coors Field · 8/3 - 8:40 PM EDT

Toss-up: about a coin flip between the Rays and the Rockies.
⚾ Nudged by today's starting pitchers, on top of team strength.
🌡️ 93°F 💨 17 mph gusts 🌧️ 51% precip at Coors Field
🏟️ Coors Field is one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the league - tends to boost scoring and home runs.
🎯 Rays' starter has the clear ERA edge today; real chance of rain affecting the game and windy enough to matter for fly balls.

Tampa Bay Rays

Record: 65-46 · away

⚾ Probable pitcher: Ian Seymour (4.37 ERA, 7-3)

52/100
Team Strength Score

51.2%Toss-up · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 59.1% (-155)

VS
👀 Betting-value note (separate from our actual pick above): the markets may be underpricing the Rockies compared to what our model thinks.
Our predicted final margin
Rays by ~0.2
Real sportsbook lines, shown for comparison only — not betting advice.
Home team's odds, a few different ways
Us48.8%
ESPN42.9%
Vegas40.9%

Colorado Rockies

Record: 45-67 · home

⚾ Probable pitcher: Michael Lorenzen (6.54 ERA, 3-9)

75/100
Team Strength Score

48.8%Toss-up · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 40.9% (138)

How each team's form has trended (last 5 games)

Going up means the team's been playing better than expected lately; going down means worse.

TB
COL

Players to know

Real season stats for each team's top performers, plus anyone banged up — useful if you've got these guys in a lineup.

TB
  • Batting AverageYandy Diaz.301
  • Home RunsJunior Caminero30
  • Runs Batted InJunior Caminero66
  • Earned Run AverageNick Martinez2.77
  • WinsNick Martinez10
  • StrikeoutsDrew Rasmussen122
Gavin Lux 60-Day-IL
Steven Wilson 60-Day-IL
Cole Sulser 15-Day-IL
Jonathan Heasley 60-Day-IL
Jake Fraley 60-Day-IL
COL
  • Batting AverageTJ Rumfield.296
  • Home RunsHunter Goodman33
  • Runs Batted InHunter Goodman65
  • WinsTomoyuki Sugano11
  • StrikeoutsKyle Freeland93
Blas Castano 15-Day-IL
Jaden Hill 15-Day-IL
Jeff Criswell 15-Day-IL
McCade Brown 60-Day-IL
Jose Quintana 60-Day-IL

🎰 Player Props

These are real bets you could place tonight — the number after "o" is the target (e.g. "o0.5" means more than 0.5), and the number in parentheses is the payout odds (negative means the book expects it to happen more often than not). We've ranked players within each stat by comparing their normal season average to tonight's number — the bigger the gap, the more that number looks low for what they usually do. This isn't a prediction for tonight specifically (no adjustment for who's pitching, weather, or a hot streak, though home run and total bases numbers are scaled for tonight's actual ballpark), just an honest "does this look low" check. Open "Why this number" on any player to see what went into it. Players with no average shown are ones we couldn't confidently match to season stats. Different lines can come from different sportsbooks, so each card names its source.

🎯 Where tonight's numbers look lowest for what these players usually do
1 Hunter Goodman Total Bases Target: o1.5 (-101) · usually gets 3.15 · +1.65 above tonight's number · cleared it in 2 of the last 10
2 Junior Caminero Total Bases Target: o1.5 (-154) · usually gets 3.08 · +1.58 above tonight's number · cleared it in 4 of the last 10
3 Yandy Diaz Total Bases Target: o1.5 (-168) · usually gets 2.55 · +1.05 above tonight's number · cleared it in 5 of the last 10
Biggest gap between season average and tonight's number — a real signal worth a look, not a guarantee. Small sample, no adjustment for matchup or weather.

Hits

via DraftKings
  1. TJ Rumfield o0.5 (-266) avg 1.06 (+0.56)
  2. Hunter Goodman o0.5 (-252) avg 0.97 (+0.47)
  3. Willi Castro o0.5 (-224) avg 0.93 (+0.43)
  4. Tyler Freeman o0.5 (-215) avg 0.83 (+0.33)
  5. Kyle Karros o0.5 (-267) avg 0.81 (+0.31)
  6. Ezequiel Tovar o0.5 (-143) avg 0.65 (+0.15)
  7. Richie Palacios o0.5 (-242) avg 0.63 (+0.13)
  8. Taylor Walls o0.5 (-205) avg 0.62 (+0.12)

Total Bases

via DraftKings
  1. Hunter Goodman o1.5 (-101) avg 3.15 (+1.65)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 2.1 season average
    Ballpark +12.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter +23.8%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight3.15
    Held back to +50%: those factors multiplied out to +119.3%, but they overlap (a hot day and a homer-prone park describe some of the same thing), so stacking them in full would overstate it.
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 243 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 90.8 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 116.2 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 46.1% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 16.9% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 35.0% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 411.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
    Last 10 games — cleared 1.5 in 2 of them
    0 WSH
    6 WSH
    1 WSH
    1 @MIL
    1 @MIL
    1 @MIL
    0 @SD
    0 @SD
    0 KC
    10 KC
    Average over those 102.0
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  2. Junior Caminero o1.5 (-154) avg 3.08 (+1.58)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 2.05 season average
    Ballpark +12.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter +6.2%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight3.08
    Held back to +50%: those factors multiplied out to +88.2%, but they overlap (a hot day and a homer-prone park describe some of the same thing), so stacking them in full would overstate it.
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 329 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 92.9 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 116.9 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 50.3% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 13.4% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 28.3% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 410.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
    Last 10 games — cleared 1.5 in 4 of them
    2 @TOR
    0 @TOR
    1 CLE
    2 CLE
    0 CLE
    5 TEX
    0 TEX
    0 TEX
    4 CHW
    0 CHW
    Average over those 101.4
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  3. Yandy Diaz o1.5 (-168) avg 2.55 (+1.05)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.79 season average
    Ballpark +12.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter +6.2%
    Barrel rate -5.1%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight2.55
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 346 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 90.7 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 113.7 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 47.1% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 6.9% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 29.5% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 385.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
    Last 10 games — cleared 1.5 in 5 of them
    0 @TOR
    1 @TOR
    0 CLE
    3 CLE
    0 CLE
    0 TEX
    4 TEX
    2 TEX
    2 CHW
    2 CHW
    Average over those 101.4
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  4. Jonathan Aranda o1.5 (-149) avg 2.39 (+0.89)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.59 season average
    Ballpark +12.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter +6.2%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight2.39
    Held back to +50%: those factors multiplied out to +88.2%, but they overlap (a hot day and a homer-prone park describe some of the same thing), so stacking them in full would overstate it.
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 294 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 91.0 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 111.4 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 45.1% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 10.5% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 38.1% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 387.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  5. Cole Carrigg o1.5 (-110) avg 2.23 (+0.73)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.68 season average
    Ballpark +12.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter +23.8%
    Barrel rate -24.3%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight2.23
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 110 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 86.8 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 109.9 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 32.7% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 5.5% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 38.2% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 404.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  6. Willi Castro o1.5 (+126) avg 2.19 (+0.69)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.46 season average
    Ballpark +12.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter +23.8%
    Barrel rate +14.2%
    Expected offense +1.8%
    Adjusted for tonight2.19
    Held back to +50%: those factors multiplied out to +85.3%, but they overlap (a hot day and a homer-prone park describe some of the same thing), so stacking them in full would overstate it.
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 229 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 88.1 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 112.1 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 40.2% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 8.3% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 31.9% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 413.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  7. TJ Rumfield o1.5 (+106) avg 2.16 (+0.66)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.66 season average
    Ballpark +12.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter +23.8%
    Barrel rate -25.0%
    Expected offense +8.9%
    Adjusted for tonight2.16
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 322 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 83.6 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 107.6 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 27.6% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 5.0% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 37.9% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 410.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  8. Jake McCarthy o1.5 (-113) avg 2.13 (+0.63)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.73 season average
    Ballpark +12.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter +23.8%
    Barrel rate -25.0%
    Expected offense +2.8%
    Adjusted for tonight2.13
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 277 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 85.0 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 108.6 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 24.9% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 5.1% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 36.8% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 419.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg

Strikeouts

via DraftKings
  1. Michael Lorenzen o3.5 (+124) avg 3.64 (+0.14)
  2. Ian Seymour o4.5 (-139)