ChaBoi Sportswho's actually going to win?
⚾ MLB
🏈 NFL 🏈 College Football 🏀 NBA 🏀 WNBA ⚾ MLB 🏒 NHL
Golf
⛳ PGA Tour ⛳ LPGA Tour ⛳ Champions Tour
?

Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodger Stadium · 10/3 - 4:00 PM EDT

The Dodgers are favored, expected to win by about 1.
100°F 7 mph gusts at Dodger Stadium

Atlanta Braves

Record: 94-68 · away

89/100
Team Strength Score

43.0%Slight Underdog · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 33.8% (+183)

VS
Betting-value note (separate from our actual pick above): the markets may be underpricing the Braves compared to what our model thinks.
Our predicted final margin
Dodgers by ~1.1
Vegas line: LAD -225
We project a total of ~7.2
Vegas total: 8.5 · we lean UNDER
Sportsbook lines, for comparison only — not betting advice.
Home team's odds, a few different ways
Us57.0%
ESPN62.0%
Vegas66.2%

Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 100-62 · home

Probable pitcher: Tarik Skubal (None ERA, None-None)

95/100
Team Strength Score

57.0%Slight Edge · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 66.2% (-225)

How each team's form has trended (last 20 games)

Going up means the team's been playing better than expected lately; going down means worse.

ATL
ATL: 1546.2
LAD
LAD: 1570.9

Players to know

Season stats for each team's top performers, plus anyone banged up — useful if you've got these guys in a lineup.

ATL
  • Batting AverageMichael Harris II.294
  • Home RunsMatt Olson41
  • Runs Batted InMatt Olson93
  • Earned Run AverageChris Sale2.16
  • WinsChris Sale14
  • StrikeoutsChris Sale200
Lane Thomas 10-Day-IL
Reynaldo Lopez 15-Day-IL
Joe Jimenez 60-Day-IL
Tyler Mahle Day-To-Day
Martin Perez 15-Day-IL
LAD
  • Batting AverageFreddie Freeman.288
  • Home RunsShohei Ohtani30
  • Runs Batted InAndy Pages85
  • Earned Run AverageYoshinobu Yamamoto2.53
  • WinsYoshinobu Yamamoto14
  • StrikeoutsYoshinobu Yamamoto182
Will Klein 60-Day-IL
Gavin Stone 60-Day-IL
Jake Cousins 60-Day-IL
Ben Casparius 60-Day-IL
Brusdar Graterol 60-Day-IL

Player Props

Real sportsbook lines, ranked by how low tonight's number looks against each player's normal season average.

How to read this

The number after "o" is the target (e.g. "o0.5" means more than 0.5). When shown, the number in parentheses is the payout odds (negative means the book expects it to happen more often than not), and "opened" is where the line started before it moved. Players are ranked within each stat by comparing their normal season average to tonight's number — the bigger the gap, the more that number looks low for what they usually do. Not a prediction for tonight specifically (no adjustment for who's pitching, weather, or a hot streak, though home run and total bases numbers are scaled for tonight's ballpark), just a "does this look low" check. Open "Why this number" on any player for detail. Players with no average shown couldn't be confidently matched to season stats. Different lines can come from different sportsbooks, so each card names its source.

Where tonight's numbers look lowest for what these players usually do
1 Drake Baldwin Total Bases Pick: OVER 1.5 · usually gets 2.42 · +0.92 above tonight's number · cleared it in 6 of the last 10
2 Drake Baldwin Hits Pick: OVER 0.5 · usually gets 1.13 · +0.63 above tonight's number · cleared it in 7 of the last 10
3 Michael Harris II Hits Pick: OVER 0.5 · usually gets 1.12 · +0.62 above tonight's number · cleared it in 5 of the last 10
Biggest gap between season average and tonight's number — worth a look, not a guarantee. Small sample, no adjustment for matchup or weather.

Total Bases

via DraftKings
  1. Drake Baldwin o1.5 avg 2.42 (+0.92)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.83 season average
    Ballpark -6.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter -10.9%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight2.42
    How hard they hit the ball — 419 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 91.5 mph vs 88.2 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 112.8 mph vs 109.3 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 50.6% vs 36.7% lg avg
    Barrel rate 12.9% vs 7.1% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 37.5% vs 32.6% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 402.0 ft vs 394.0 ft lg avg
    Last 10 games — cleared 1.5 in 6 of them
    5 @CHC
    0 @CHC
    3 @HOU
    4 @HOU
    1 @HOU
    2 CIN
    0 CIN
    3 CIN
    0 @MIA
    6 @MIA
    Average over those 102.4
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.

Hits

via DraftKings
  1. Drake Baldwin o0.5 avg 1.13 (+0.63)
    Why this number
    Last 10 games — cleared 0.5 in 7 of them
    2 @CHC
    0 @CHC
    2 @HOU
    3 @HOU
    1 @HOU
    2 CIN
    0 CIN
    2 CIN
    0 @MIA
    3 @MIA
    Average over those 101.5
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  2. Michael Harris II o0.5 avg 1.12 (+0.62)
    Why this number
    Last 10 games — cleared 0.5 in 5 of them
    0 @CHC
    1 @CHC
    3 @HOU
    0 @HOU
    0 @HOU
    2 CIN
    0 CIN
    3 CIN
    0 @MIA
    4 @MIA
    Average over those 101.3
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  3. Freddie Freeman o0.5 avg 1.09 (+0.59)
  4. Shohei Ohtani o0.5 avg 1.07 (+0.57)
  5. Andy Pages o0.5 avg 1.04 (+0.54)
  6. Mauricio Dubon o0.5 avg 1.03 (+0.53)
  7. Mookie Betts o0.5 avg 1.0 (+0.5)
  8. Matt Olson o0.5 avg 0.97 (+0.47)

Rbis

via DraftKings
  1. Matt Olson o0.5 avg 0.57 (+0.07)
  2. Drake Baldwin o0.5 avg 0.57 (+0.07)
  3. Michael Harris II o0.5 avg 0.56 (+0.06)
  4. Ronald Acuna Jr. o0.5 avg 0.51 (+0.01)
  5. Mauricio Dubon o0.5 avg 0.48 (-0.02)
  6. Ozzie Albies o0.5 avg 0.45 (-0.05)
  7. Austin Riley o0.5 avg 0.45 (-0.05)
  8. Sean Murphy o0.5 avg 0.3 (-0.2)
See today's full slate free. Sign in free